Two Australian academics have uncovered how Hamas inflated war casualty figures, which were amplified by the global media, distorting coverage of the Gaza conflict.
A groundbreaking report released last month by two Australian academics reveals widespread manipulation in the casualty data disseminated by Hamas during the ongoing conflict in Gaza.
Their findings challenge widely accepted narratives and raise serious concerns about the use of disinformation – and the role of the legacy media – in modern warfare.
The paper, titled Hamas Casualty Reports are a Tangle of Technical Problems, published by the Henry Jackson Society and authored by Professor Lewi Stone (RMIT University) and Professor Gregory Rose (University of Wollongong), is based on extensive analysis of casualty lists released by the Hamas-controlled Ministry of Health (MoH) in Gaza between October 2023 and March 2025.
Contrary to Hamas’ repeated claims that 70% of casualties were women and children – a figure amplified by sympathetic media and international bodies – the report concludes that this figure is inflated and contradicted by Hamas’ own raw data.
For example, in Khan Yunis, during Israeli ground operations in early 2024, women and children — who make up 75% of the population – comprised only 34.5% of deaths. Across the entire war, the proportion of women and children among the 50,021 identified deaths was 51%, not 70% as claimed by the Hamas Government Media Office (GMO).
Civilian Harm Lower Than Publicly Alleged
One of the most striking findings is the high proportion of combat-age male deaths. Of the 11,224 new casualties reported in the final dataset, 76% were male, with 58% in the legal combatant age range of 18 to 59. This contradicts the image of indiscriminate civilian targeting and suggests the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) were often striking combatants, not non-combatants.
Even these numbers may understate the truth, as Hamas reportedly suppressed data on its own fighters’ deaths and removed known Hamas members from the lists.
“Empirical evidence shows Israeli military tried to limit Gazan civilian harm,” the authors conclude, highlighting Israeli efforts to issue over 12 million flyers, 800,000 voice messages, and 100,000 phone calls warning civilians to evacuate conflict zones.
The report also reveals major flaws in the verification and categorisation of casualties:
- 15,070 deaths were initially reported as “unidentified,” later “verified” through online submissions, often with dubious supporting evidence.
- Some reported deaths were found to include people still living.
- Natural deaths, deaths from disease, and even Hamas misfire casualties were included without distinction from Israeli-caused deaths.
- Thousands of names were removed or altered in subsequent lists without explanation.
These manipulations allowed the Hamas Ministry of Health to present a distorted picture of Israeli conduct and to accuse Israel of genocide — allegations that gained traction internationally, despite lacking statistical or documentary support.
A Misleading Media Echo Chamber
The report highlights how foreign academics and media relied heavily on data provided by Hamas, especially in the early stages of the war. Projections from institutions like the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine overestimated Gazan deaths by as much as 440%. One controversial paper in The Lancet predicted up to 186,000 deaths from indirect causes, while Hamas’ own data showed just 38 malnutrition-related deaths by September 2024.
United Nations agencies like UN-OCHA initially echoed Hamas’ 70% figure for women and children casualties, only to later revise these numbers downward by nearly half – an implicit admission of prior error.
The report also highlights how time-sensitive data was deliberately obscured. Although MoH systems recorded exact dates and times of death, this information was not published, making it difficult to track casualty trends over time or to verify claims about specific events. Researchers found that deaths were shuffled between reports, lists were edited retroactively, and thousands of names were deleted or altered without explanation.
Importantly, while the IDF reported having killed some 20,000 Hamas and allied fighters, the MoH listed none of its casualties as combatants. The result is a public dataset that treats all deaths as civilians – regardless of combat status, cause of death, or source of injury.
The report’s authors stress that, despite their technical sophistication, Hamas’ casualty datasets were weaponised as tools of strategic disinformation. Leveraging the cooperation of a willing international media, they exploited public trust in data to misrepresent Israel’s military operations and sway global opinion.
The full report can be accessed here.
Republished with thanks to The Daily Declaration. Image by Jade Koroliuk on Unsplash.
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